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【精品文档】81毕业设计外文文献翻译成品 经济增长外商直接投资和贸易之间的关系 来自中国的证据

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【精品文档】 毕业设计外文文献翻译成品 外文文献翻译成品 毕业设计外文
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此文档是毕业设计外文翻译成品( 含英文原文+中文翻译),无需调整复杂的格式!下载之后直接可用,方便快捷!本文价格不贵,也就几十块钱!一辈子一次的事!外文标题:Relationships between economic growth, foreign direct investment and trade: evidence from China外文作者:Xiaohui Liu , Peter Burridge & P. J. N. Sinclair文献出处:Applied Economics.2018. 34(11):1433-40(如觉得年份太老,可改为近2年,毕竟很多毕业生都这样做)英文1898单词,10100字符(字符就是印刷符),中文2874汉字。Relationships between economic growth,foreign direct investment and trade: evidence from ChinaXiaohui Liu , Peter Burridge & P. J. N. SinclairThis study investigates the causal links between trade, economic growth and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in China at the aggregate level. The integration and cointegration properties of quarterly data are analysed. Long-run relationships between growth, exports, imports and FDI are identified in a cointegration framework, in which this paper bi-directional causality between economic growth, FDI and exports. Economic development, exports and FDI appear to be mutually reinforcing under the open-door policy.I. INTRODUCTIONSince starting the process of economic reform, and opening up to the outside world in 1979, China has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world. External trade and GDP grew on average by about 15% and 9% p.a., respectively, from 1979 to 1997 and China is now the largest recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the developing world.1 Many studies have investigated the relations between China's inward FDI and other aspects of the Chinese economy. However, there has been little detailed empirical study of causal links between FDI, trade and economic growth in China, especially in a multivariate framework. Understanding the causal connections between these phenomena is important for development strategies in China and other developing countries.The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to examine the causal relationship between economic growth, trade and FDI in China by using multivariate Granger causality tests in a cointegration framework. This study tests the integration properties of the data, then employs the Johansen procedure to detect the number of cointegrating vectors, and then tests causality in the resulting restricted VARECM.II. METHODOLOGYThis study is interested in the interplay of four variables, GDP, FDI, Imports, and Exports; to set the scene, therefore, consider a VAR involving four variables, W; X; Y; and Z. In a stationary setting, a Granger causality test in such a structure would be carried out (following Ghartey, 1993) via the following regressions:This study thus tests for unit roots, fits a VAR, selecting lag length via the usual combination of residual diagnostics and coefficient F-tests, tests for cointegrating rank, and finally tests for causality.Anticipating slightly, since it is found that the data are cointegrated with rank equal to 2, ignoring the higher- order dynamics and the seasonal pattern, Equations 1-4 above can be re-written in VARECM form:III. DATAQuarterly exports (EX) and imports (IM) from 1981:1 to 1997:4 are obtained from the International Financial Statistics Yearbook. We treat exports and imports separately to allow for the possibility that their influence is asymmetric. Quarterly inward FDI data for the same period are acquired from various sources, including the China State Statistical Bureau and Journal of International Trade (in Chinese). These series are deflated using the GDP deflator (1990 = 100). No quarterly or monthly GDP statistics for China are available, only monthly gross industrial output (GIO) at 1990 constant prices, so this study must construct an estimated quarterly series. Following Liu et al. (1997), it has been found that the annual growth pattern of GDP is similar to that of GIO, and the GDP estimate constructed as follows. Let gt, t = 1981; 1982,... be the annual GDP/GIO ratio, and GI〇q be the quarterly value of GIO (sum of three consecutive months), then the quarterly GDP data are calculated by the following equation:IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTSTesting for integrationTable 1 gives the results of ADF unit root tests with lag length chosen by downward search (t-test on the longest lag). This study works throughout with the logarithms of the variables, so that ®rst di erences correspond to growth rates. The null hypothesis of a unit root in the logarithm is not rejected for any of the four variables. However, each of the logged series is stationary in first differences, so all the variables are integrated of order one. Therefore, the causality tests in this paper are based on estimation of Equation 5 with seasonal dummies and further lagged differences on the RHSMaintaining a cointegration rank of two, two normalizing and two exclusion restrictions for identification are introduced; that is, this study normalizes on LGDP in Equation 7 below, and on LFDI in Equation 8, and excludes LFDI from Equation 7 and LGDP from Equation 8, which leads to the cointegrating relations below:where SD represents seasonal dummy variables.As is apparent from Fig. 1, there is a common rising trend, and the most plausible interpretation of Equation 7 is that GDP and external trade are broadly proportional.Testing for weak exogeneity and causalityTables 4 and 5 report the weak exogeneity and causality tests, in which, in the notation of Equation 5, Wt = LFDI,Xt = LGDP; Yt = LIM and Zt = LEX.Notice that the four weak exogeneity (weak causality - after Hall and Milne) tests (that each successive row of the matrix, a, is zero) massively reject the null hypothesis for each of the four variables. Therefore, this study concludes that each is weakly caused by the other three, which implies in turn that there is a bi-directional Granger causality between all pairs of variables. This conclusion is reinforced by the results in Table 5. There this study reports Wald tests of the hypothesis that all higher-order lagged coe - cients in the VARECM, on each variable in turn, are zero - that is, the second set of restrictions implied by Granger non- causality (see again Hall and Milne, 1994; 600, Equation 14). These Wald tests reveal bi-directional causal links in the short-run dynamics between GDP, Exports and FDI, but only a one-way causal link appears running from these three variables to Imports.Further interpreting the empirical resultsThere is intense interest in the causal connections, if any, between economic growth, FDI, exports and imports, especially in the context of development strategies. The results reported in Tables 4 and 5 appear to confirm the existence of causal connections in both directions for three variables, GDP, FDI and exports. These results are consistent with previous findings that FDI takes place in China because growth and foreign trade prospects have made the country more attractive to foreign investors, reflected here in the causal link from growth, and exports to FDI (Broadman and Sun, 1997; Sun, 1998). On the other hand, two-way causal links between these variables also imply FDI a ects growth as found not only in the case of the UK and Germany (Barrell and Pain, 1997), but also in 69 developing countries (Borensztin et al., 1998).Export promotion is a major aim of FDI policy in China. The government has created an export-promoting trade regime for FIEs with minimum administrative interference. The share of FIEs’ exports on total exports has increased substantially during the 1990s, and accounted for 41% in 1997. Therefore it is not surprising to ®nd two-way causal links between exports and FDI. However, in the short-run dynamics, only a unidirectional causal link exists running from GDP, exports and FDI to imports, suggesting that economic growth, export expansion and inflows of FDI a ect imports in the short run, rather than the other way round. The possible reason for this is that the Chinese government still restricts imports through import planning, tariffs and non-tariff barriers. This may cause economic distortion and ine ciency (Corden, 1997), so that the immediate e ect of imports on GDP, FDI and exports is likely to be too small to be visible at the aggregate level.V. CONCLUSIONMultivariate causality tests, applied to quarterly data from 1981:1 to 1997:4, conducted in the VARECM framework show that two-way causal connections exist between economic growth, FDI and exports, with rather weaker evidence of feedback from imports to the other three. The results also show that failure to account for interaction between FDI, growth and external trade can produce spurious results in the analysis of the relationships between these four variables, as may be evident in some previously reported studies.REFERENCESBarrell, R. and Pain, N. (1997) Foreign direct investment, technological change, and economic growth within Europe, The Economic Journal, 107, 1770-85.Ben-David, D. and Loewy, M. (1997) Free trade, growth and convergence, NBER Working Paper, No. 6095.Borensztin, E., Gregorio, J. and Lee, J. (1998) How does foreign direct investment a ect economic growth, Journal of International Economics, 45, 115-35.Broadman, G and Sun, X. (1997) The distribution of foreign direct investment in China, World Economy, 20, 339-61. China State Statistical Bureau (1988) Monthly data of total value of industrial output from 1981:1 to 1997:4, The Centre ofEconomic Information, (1998) Beijing. China State Statistical Bureau, Quarterly inward FDI data, Division of Foreign Economic Relations, Beijing.Corden, W. M. (1997) Trade Policy and Economic Welfare, 2nd ed., Clarendon Press, Oxford.Dees, S. (1998) Foreign direct investment in China: determinants and effects, Economics of Planning, 31, 175-94.Ghartey, E. (1993) Causal relationship between exports and economic growth: some empirical evidence in Taiwan, Japan and the US, Applied Economics, 25, 1145-52.Hall, S. and Milne, A. (1994) The relevance of p-star analysis to UK monetary policy, The Economic Journal, 104,597-604.Johansen, S. (1988) Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 213-54.International Financial Statistics Yearbook, (1982-1998), Quarterly Chinese exports and imports from 1981 Q1 to 1997 Q4, IMF.Liu, X., Song, H. and Romilly, P. (1997) An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in China, Applied Economics, 29, 1679-86.Liu, X., Song, H., Wei, Y. and Romilly, P. (1997) Country characteristics and foreign direct investment in China: A panel data analysis, Weltwirschaftliches Archiv, 133, 313-29.Naughton, B. (1996) China’s emergence and prospects as a trading nation, Brookings Papers on Economic Activities, 2, 273342.Shan, J. and Sun, F. (1998) On the export-led growth hypothesis: the econometric evidence from China, Applied Economics, 30, 1055-65.Sun, H. (1998) Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Development in China: 1979—1996,Ashgate, England.Toda, H. and Phillips, C. (1993) Vector autoregression and causality, Econometrica, 61, 1367-93.Tables for quarterly inward FDI data from 1991:1 to 1997:4, Journal of International Trade (in Chinese), 1991-1997, 916, pp. 60-62.Wang, Z. Q. and Swain, N. (1997) Determinants of inflow of foreign direct investment in Hungary and China: time- Series approach, Journal of International Development, 9, 695-726.Wei, S. (1995) The open door policy and China’s rapid growth: evidence from city-level data, in Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience (Eds) T. Ito and A. Krueger, The University of Chicago Press, London and Chicago.Wei, Y., Liu, X., Song, H. and Romilly, P. (2001) Endogenous innovation growth theory and regional income convergence in China, Journal of International Development, 13, 153168.Woo, W. T. (1995) Comments on Wei’s paper (1995) Foreign direct investment in China: source and consequences, in Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia (Ed.), A. Krueger, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 166-189经济增长、外商直接投资和贸易之间的关系:来自中国的证据Xiaohui Liu , Peter Burridge & P. J. N. Sinclair在本文的研究中,调查了中国总体贸易、经济增长和对外直接投资(FDI)之间的因果联系。 对每一季度数据的整合和协整特性进行了分析。 对经济增长、出口、进口和FDI之间的长期关系在协整框架中进行了探析,在本文中发现经济增长、FDI和出口之间的双向因果关系。 在开放政策下,经济发展、出口和外国直接投资似乎相辅相成。引言自1979年开始经济改革和对外开放以来,中国已成为世界上增长最快的经济体之一。 从1979年到1997年,对外贸易和国内生产总值分别平均增长15%和9%左右,中国现在是发展中国家最大的外国直接投资接受国。许多研究调查了中国内部的外国直接投资与中国经济其他方面之间的关系。 然而,对于中国的外商直接投资,贸易和经济增长之间的因果联系,特别是在多元框架下,还没有进行详细的实证研究。 了解这些现象之间的因果关系对于中国和其他发展中国家的发展战略非常重要。因此,本文所作出的贡献是通过在协整框架下使用多元格兰杰因果检验来检验中国经济增长、贸易和外商直接投资之间的因果关系。 本研究测试了数据的整合性,然后采用Johansen程序去检测协整向量的数量,然后在VARECM框架下测试了因果关系。研究方法在本研究关注了四个变量的相互作用,即GDP、FDI、进口和出口; 因此,在VAR中考虑四个变量W、X、Y和Z。在固定的设置中,这种结构中的Granger因果检验将通过以下回归进行(Ghartey,1993)因此,本研究检验了单位根,拟合VAR,通过残差诊断和系数F检验的常用组合来选择滞后长度,检验共整合秩数,最后检验因果关系。由于发现数据是以等于2的等级进行协整的,因此忽略高阶动力学和季节模式,上面的等式1-4可以用VARECM形式进行重写:数据从1981年至1997年的季度出口(EX)和进口(IM中):第四项是从国际金融统计年鉴中获得的。我们分别处理出口和进口,以考虑其影响是不是具有不对称的可能性。同期的外商直接投资数据来自各个渠道,包括中国国家统计局和国际贸易杂志(中文版)。这些系列使用GDP平减指数(1990 = 100)。中国没有季度或月度的GDP统计数据,只有按1990年不变价格计算的月度工业总产值(GIO),所以这项研究必须构建一个季度系列数据。接下来在刘等人(1997)发现GDP的年增长模式与GIO的增长模式相似,GDP的估计结构如下gtt = 1981; 1982年,...是年GDP / GIO比率,GIOq是GIO(连续三个月的总和)的季度总值,那么季度GDP数据按以下公式计算:结果整合测试表1给出了ADF单位根检验的结果,其中滞后长度由向下搜索(最长滞后期t的检验)进行选择。 这项研究贯穿变量的对数,所以第一个差异对应于增长率。 对数中的单位根的零假设对于四个变量中的任何一个都不会被排除在外。 然而,每个记录的序列在第一个差异中是固定的,因此所有变量都是一阶积分。 因此,本文中的因果关系检验基于对方程5的评估,包括季节性和RHS的进一步滞后差异。引入了两个协整等级,两个正态化和两个排除限制来识别; 也就是说,本研究根据下面公式7中的LGDP和公式8中的LFDI进行归一化处理,并从公式7中排除LFDI,从公式8中排除LGDP,从而带来下面的协整关系:SD代表季节性虚拟变量。从图1可以看出,有一个共同的上升趋势,对方程7的最可信的解释是GDP和外贸是大致成比例的。弱外生性和因果关系的检测表4和表5报告了弱外生性和因果关系的检验,其中在等式5的符号中,Wt = LFDI,Xt = LGDP; Yt = LIM和Zt = LEX。需要注意的是,四个弱外生性(弱因果性 - 在霍尔和米尔恩之后)测试(矩阵的每个连续性a为零)大量地将四个变量中的每一个零假设排除在外。因此,这项研究得出结论,每一个都是由其他三个弱项引起的,这意味着所有变量之间存在双向Granger因果关系。这一结论根据表5中的结果得到了强化。这项研究报告了瓦尔德检验的假设,即VARECM中的所有高阶滞后系数,依次每个变量为零 - 即第二组限制条件由格兰杰非因果关系显示出来(再次参见Hall和Milne,1994; 600,等式14)。这些Wald检验揭示了GDP、出口和FDI之间短期动态的双向因果关系,但是从这三个变量到进口只有一个单向因果关系。对结果的进一步解释人们对经济增长、外国直接投资、出口和进口之间的因果联系(尤其是发展战略方面)存在着强烈的兴趣。 表4和表5中报告的结果似乎证实了三个变量(GDP,FDI和出口)在两个方向上存在因果关系。 这些结果与之前关于外商直接投资在中国发生的结果是一致的,因为经济增长和对外贸易前景使该国对外国投资者更具吸引力,这里可以从经济增长和出口到FDI的因果关系反映出来(Broadman and Sun,1997; Sun ,1998)。 另一方面,这些变量之间的双向因果关系也意味着不仅在英国和德国(Barrell and Pain,1997),而且还发生在在其他69个发展中国家(Borensztin et 1998)。促进出口是外国直接投资政策在中国的主要目标。 政府已经为外商投资企业制定了出口促进贸易制度,把行政干预的影响降到最小。 外商投资企业的出口在总出口中所占的份额在20世纪90年代大幅度增加,在1997年占了41%。因此,在出口和外国直接投资之间找到双向因果关系并不是很意外。 然而,在短期动态中,从GDP、出口和FDI到进口仅存在单向因果关系,这表明FDI在短期内会导致经济增长,出口扩张和流入。 可能的原因是中国政府仍然通过进口计划、关税和非关税壁垒来限制进口。 这可能导致经济扭曲和效率低下(Corden,1997),因此进口对GDP、FDI和出口的直接影响可能太小,不能在总体水平上得以显现。结论多变量因果检验,可应用于从1981:1到1997:4的季度数据,在VARECM框架下进行的研究表明,经济增长、FDI和出口之间存在双向因果关系,从反馈的数据看进口与其他三项呈现弱联系。 结果还表明,如果不考虑外国直接投资、经济增长和外部贸易之间的相互作用,可能会在分析这四个变量之间的关系时产生虚假的结果,这在以前的一些报告中也出现的很明显。REFERENCESBarrell, R. and Pain, N. (1997) Foreign direct investment, technological change, and economic growth within Europe, The Eco
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